Economic Overview: Tariffs Sew Uncertainty, Tax Bill Could Lead Rebound
The S&P 500 rose 10.52% in the second quarter of 2025 and is up 6.20% on a year-to-date basis. Stocks rebounded strongly from their recent lows and are up over 24% from their early April lows. During the second quarter the Trump administration continued to push new tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. As we discussed last quarter, the effect of all these actions is that consumer confidence and sentiment has continued to decline as prices have moved higher. Consumer spending continues to slow as the combination of high prices and high interest rates are causing U.S. economic growth to continue to slow. The labor market continues to weaken, and we expect the U.S. unemployment rate to move up to 4.6% by the end of the year, from 4.3% at quarter end.
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Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed in this report constitute judgments as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informative purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any product or as investment advice for any purpose. Investors should contact their financial advisor prior to making investment decisions. The accuracy of any forecasts is dependent on the occurrence of future events which cannot be assured; therefore, actual results may vary from any forecasts.
